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Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. This is because he states that these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons. Deepening Deficits in Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2020 Real Net-Exports (GDP) and the Related Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Were the Worst Ever in Modern U.S. Australia's Government Strengthens Grip With By-Election Win. In summary, Shadow Stats constructed their alternative measure by taking a 5.1% difference between CPIU and CPIURS (the BLS's retroactive adjustment) and misinterpreted it as an ANNUAL difference when it was in fact a CUMULATIVE difference. From a revised -101.7 (previously -101.7) billion, from a revised -98.2 billion in December, its worst monthly showing since -112.4 billion in October 2022. Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. Financial Market Turmoil Is Just Beginning, Key Monthly Economic Numbers Turned Negative Anew in Fourth-Quarter 2020 Best Wishes -- John Williams. The 2020 Pandemic-Driven Recession was timed by the defining National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), from Peak-to-Trough, as from February 2020 to April 2020 [2 months, the shortest on record] and from Fourth-Quarter 2019 to Second-Quarter 2020 [2 quarters]. and growth As repeated here frequently, raising interest rates sharply now only pummels further an already moribund economy, it does little to contain the Feds current monetary inflation problem. India's Jobless Rate Hits a Three-Month High of 7.8%, CMIE Says. Details and related graphs follow in the next Subscriber e-mail, with extended review and coverage of this Fed-acknowledged regular pattern of initial upside reporting and later downside benchmark revisions to this series, as otherwise pending in Commentary No. Part II --REGULAR ALERTS - Weekly Review: ECONOMY, MONEY SUPPLY AND INFLATION ALERTS: Broad Economy continues in downturn, amidst spiking Inflation. The Shadow TUAS can carry payloads up to 27kg (60lb) including sensors and electronic warfare systems. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. Any solid developments in the ever-deepening U.S. Government Fiscal Crisis will be covered here in the SYSTEMIC RISK Section. GENERAL COVERAGE: Again, on the Inflation front, it is the bloated Money Supply and gasoline price disruptions that are driving or affecting higher inflation, at present, not an overheating economy. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). Ukraine Latest: War Casts Shadow Over Votes in Bulgaria, Finland. Where Commercial Aircraft account for about 32% of total orders, the remaining 68% includes everything else, ranging from automobiles to computers. Consider -- Despite significant Recovery off the Pandemic-Driven Economic Trough of April 2020, the February 2023 Payroll Employment has recovered its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic/ Recession Peak, despite indications of a renewed slowdown. Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. Moving higher to a 120.5% of its Pre-Pandemic Level, from 119.8% in February and 119.7% in January, March 2023 Basic M1 still is shy of its August 2022 unrevised record level of 123.2%. The growth of the shadow economy can set off a destructive cycle. March 2023 activity versus the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Trough for the newly redefined (post-May 2020) headline M1 (now including Savings Deposits, at about 92% of M2) was up by a headline 375.8%, albeit on a nonsensical, not comparable and inconsistent basis, down from 385.4% in February. Given a moribund, underlying U.S. Economy, raising rates further [as had been heavily jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members, until the most-recent March 2023 FOMC] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series. INFORMAL ECONOMY SIZE AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP. L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S -- See the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE for the current FOMC coverage and detail of February and early March 2023 Monetary Conditions. FOMC action looms this week, amidst signs of a tanking Economy and a serious Inflation problem. Where monthly jobs growth in the key Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Construction Sectors has turned flat-to-minus, the Leisure and Hospitality Sector showed continued strong, albeit slowing monthly growth, still holding shy by more than 2% (-2%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic level of activity. 1459, again, with updated and expanded details pending in the Subscriber-only e-mails and No. [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .] Shadowstats primarily focuses on inflation, but also keeps track of the money supply, unemploymentand GDPby utilizing methodologies abandoned by previous administrations from the Clinton era to the Great Depression. If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. Shadowstats debunked. [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .]. Please note with the ALTERNATE DATA Tab, that the Money Supply annual growth rates after February 2021 instead are against the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Level not year-to-year (although both measures are plotted in the subscriber-only graphs). FOR SUBSCRIBERS Beyond the pending monthly Commentary, graphs covering the latest numbers and most other economic, inflation and monetary detail, are available to you by e-mail, as part of your existing, regular subscription. That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. [April 9th]. The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2 The initial headline annualized quarterly estimate of inflation-adjusted First-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed doubly negative patterns of activity. At present, full economic recovery is not likely until well into 2024 or after. The projected continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that current policy is unsustainable. Allowing for the 2021 Unfunded Liabilities, reflected here, that Debt-to-GDP ratio already was 552% at the end of Fiscal Year 2021. Yet hard Money Supply numbers through the deliberately slow release of the March 2023 detail, show minimal impact, presently still expanding in the most-liquid, inflation-driving Basic M1 (Currency and Demand Deposits). That 2021 shortfall reflected an operating deficit Net Position or operating negative net worth of $29.9 trillion in 2021, widening from a Net Position deficit of $26.8 trillion in 2020, plus deepening unfunded Social Security and Medicare net liabilities (Closed Group) of $93.6 trillion in 2021, versus $87.0 trillion in 2020. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms . Shadowstats.comis a website that analyzes and offers alternatives to government economic statistics for the United States. A new analysis will follow with preliminary April 2023 numbers late this coming week. Narrowing Annual Declines in October and November Payrolls Stalled at 6.0% (-6.0%), But the Year-to-Year Drop in December 2020 Payrolls Deepened to 6.2% (-6.2%) April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics, . FOR SUBSCRIBERS Beyond the pending monthly Commentary, graphs covering the latest numbers and most other economic, inflation and monetary detail, are available to you by e-mail, as part of your existing, regular subscription. By its very nature, the shadow economy is difficult to measure. Explored in the pending Commentary, the U.S. economy is and has been much weaker than advertised, not overheating, and the soaring inflation, which is much worse than headlined, again, primarily is being driven by the Feds excessive Money and Liquidity creation, not by an overheating economy, in a policy conundrum previously noted here by ShadowStats. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Inflation-Corrected GDP Estimate (updated and graphed in full detail on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab) is corrected for the understatement of the headline inflation used in deflating Nominal GDP to Real GDP. November Unemployment and Payrolls Confirmed Stalled, L-Shaped, Non-Recovering Economic Activity Separately, though, the Fed also purportedly has been reducing its balance sheet assets, which should slow or cut the Money Supply growth and inflation. Summary John Williams from Shadowstats joins me to discuss the new economy post-COVID-19 emergence in the US. ET); Thursday, May 4th, the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis release the March 2023 Trade Deficit (8:30 a.m. Congress keeps delaying U.S. Government Shutdowns, with continual increases in and extensions to the Debt Ceiling, amidst ongoing political games. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . COVID-19 vaccines and improved treatment have helped to stabilize a still-disrupted level of economic activity, again well shy of a fundamental, full recovery, yet Pandemic issues, including new variants and vaccination controversies, continue. 1460b and will be detailed in pending No. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. ALTERNATE DATA TAB [See the Menu Bar above] provides the latest headline numbers and exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of CPI Inflation [April 13], GDP [April 27], Unemployment [April 7], Money Supply [April 25] and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar [January 10]. (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy Tourism Research Australia (TRA) provides statistics, research and analysis to support industry development and marketing activities for the Australian tourism industry. Many segments and regions of the U.S. economy, and individual, personal circumstances have suffered, and continue to suffer severe structural damage from the shutdown, areas that likely will take years to recover fully. Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk Inflation remains elevated. An informal economy (informal sector or shadow economy) is the part of any economy that is neither officially taxed nor monitored.
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